The polls just closed and the fallout from the races will be rippling around the state for some time. While the official numbers come in, here are the on-the-record predictions from some (very!) brave readers and operatives.
I promised not to publish until after the polls close. It’s mostly for fun and bragging rights, but it also helps show what the zeitgeist was among a certain, small selection of people before the results came in and everything seemed obvious in hindsight.
Most predicted Gov. Andrew Cuomo would win big, but would not have the coattails to help his preferred candidates for in the races for Lieutenant Governor nor Attorney General.
Most people are predicting those races to be won by Councilman Jumaane Williams and Prof. Zephyr Teachout, respectively.
One smart Democratic operative I spoke with said the main story is the attorney general’s race, where the Democratic Party’s changing identity is clearly on display. “Tish [James] is a very traditional machine politician,” this operative said. “That was obscured by her Working Families Party fueled victory years ago, but she’s fundamentally not a reformer and couldn’t tell a new story about herself this year. We’re in the midst of the greatest change electorate any of us have seen.
“Zephyr authentically leaned into the the direction that the Democratic Party identity wind is blowing,” this person said.
This analysis seems both obvious, and counter-intuitive.
According to this take — which I think is correct — the Democratic Party is leaning into economic and class issues (holding Wall Street accountable, income inequality, etc.); and it’s the national Republican Party that is leaning heavily into identity politics (Trump — need I say more?).
Which, in many ways, is the opposite of how the parties get portrayed.
And now, the predictions. Thanks to everyone who participated.
Update: Unofficial results from the New York State Board of Elections have been added.
1) What percent of the vote does Gov. Andrew Cuomo get? Cynthia Nixon? [#NYGov]
Nixon 51% — Cuomo 49% [Sean Finnerty]
Cuomo 68% — Nixon 32% [Mazin Sidahmed, co-founding editor and senior reporter @Documentedny]
—> Cuomo 64.9% — Nixon 33.82% <—
Cuomo 64.4% — Nixon 35.6% [Risa Heller, communication strategiest]
Cuomo: 64% — Nixon: 31% [Aron Canter]
Cuomo 62% — Nixon 38% [Mark Green, former NYC Public advocate, 2001 Democratic mayoral nominee and FAQ guest]
Cuomo 62% — Nixon 30% [Ryan Toohey, communication strategist]
Cuomo 61% — Nixon 39% [Martin Samoylov]
Cuomo 60% — Nixon 38% [Harry Siegel, FAQ host]
Cuomo 60% — Nixon 40% [Victor Mimoni]
Cuomo 59% — Nixon 41% [Tom Allon, president and publisher of City & State]
Cuomo 59% — Nixon 41% [Bilal Haider]
Cuomo 58% — Nixon 42 [Josh Gold, public affairs for Uber]
Cuomo 58% — Nixon 42% [Jack Marth]
Cuomo 57.5% — Nixon 42.5% [Andrew Saavedra]
Cuomo 57% — Nixon 43% [Bradley Tusk, venture capitalist, political strategist, author and campaign manager for Bloomberg’s 2009 re-election]
Cuomo 57% — Nixon 43% [Jessica Proud, Republican consultant]
Cuomo 56% — Nixon 44% [Nick Rizzo, Democratic district leader]
Cuomo 55% — Nixon 45% [Mike Vilensky, former WSJ reporter now in law school]
Cuomo 54% — Nixon 46% [Frank Morano, radio host on AM 970 The Answer; and the Staten Island Chairman of the Reform Party]
Cuomo 53% — Nixon 42% [Prof. Jeanne Zaino of Iona College, and FAQ guest]
2) Does Cynthia Nixon get more votes than Zephyr Teachout did in 2014?
YES
Tom Allon
Josh Gold
Mark Green
Bilal Haider
Risa Heller
Jack Marth
Frank Morano
Nick Rizzo
Andrew Saavedra
Martin Samoylov
Jeanne Zaino
NO
Aron Canter
Mazin Sidahmed
Harry Siegel
Ryan Toohey
3) What percentage of the vote does Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul get? Jumaane Williams? [#NYLtGov]
Hochul 60% — Williams 40% [Victor Mimoni]
Hochul 56% — Williams 44% [Harry Siegel]
Hochul 55% —Williams 45% [Tom Allon]
Hochul 55% — Williams 45% [Mark Green]
Hochul 54% — Williams 44% [Martin Samoylov]
Hochul 52% — Williams 48% [Nick Rizzo]
—> Hochul 48.39% — Williams 42.37% <—
Williams 50.5% — Hochul 49.5% [Jack Marth]
Williams 51% — Hochul 49% [Jeanne Zaino]
Williams 51.5% — Hochul 48.5% [Andrew Saavedra]
Williams 52% — Hochul 48% [Bradley Tusk]
Williams 53% — Hochul 45% [Aron Canter]
Williams 53% — Hochul 45% [Ryan Toohey]
Williams 53% — Hochul 47% [Jessica Proud]
Williams 54% — Hochul 46% [Frank Morano]
Williams 55% — Hochul 45% [Mazin Sidahmed]
Williams 55% — Hochul 45% [Bilal Haider]
Williams 56% — Hochul 44% [Sean Finnerty]
Williams 59% — Hochul 41% [Risa Heller]
4) What % of the vote does Tish James, Sean Patrick Maloney, Zephyr Teachout & Leecia Eve get? [#AGNY]
Teachout 40% — James 27% — Maloney 20% — Eve 13% [Sean Finnerty]
Teachout 39% — Maloney 35% — James 22% — Eve 4% [Risa Heller]
Teachout 38% — James 34% — Maloney 20% — Eve 8 [Nick Rizzo]
Teachout 38% — James 32% — Maloney 15% — Eve 15% [Mazin Sidahmed]
Teachout 35% — James 32% — Maloney 26% — Eve 7% [Bilal Haider]
Teachout 34% — James 33% — Maloney 29% — Eve 4% [Jack Marth]
Teachout 33% — Maloney 31% James — 30% — Eve 6% [Jessica Proud]
Teachout 33% — James 31% — Maloney 31% — Eve 5% [Mark Green]
Teachout 32.5% — James 32% — Maloney 30.5% — Eve 5% [Andrew Saavedra]
Teachout 31% — Maloney 26% — James: 25% — Eve 14% [Bradley Tusk]
Teachout 29% — Maloney 28% — James 26% — Eve 6% [Ryan Toohey]
James 22% — Teachout 20% — Maloney 20% — Eve: 10% [Aron Canter]
James 32% — Maloney 28% — Teachout 35% — Eve 5% [Tom Allon]
James 32% — Maloney 33% — Teachout 31% — Eve 5% [Harry Siegel]
James 34% — Teachout 33% [Victor Mimoni]
James 37% — Maloney 31% — Teachout 27% — Eve 5% [Jeanne Zaino]
—> James 38.67% — Teachout 29.52% — Maloney 23.84% — Eve 3.24% <—
James 40% — Maloney 27% — Teachout 31% — Eve 2% [Martin Samoylov]
Maloney 34% — James 32% — Teachout 26% — Eve 5% [Frank Morano]
What percentage of the vote do the following candidates get:
5) State Senator Jeff Klein / Alessandra Biaggi
Klein 65% — Biaggi 35%[Martin Samoylov]
Klein 62% — Biaggi 37% [Aron Canter]
Klein 60% — Biaggi 40% [Frank Morano]
Klein 54% — Biaggi 46% [Tom Allon]
Klein 53% — Biaggi 47% [Mark Green]
Biaggi 51% — Klein 49%[Bilal Haider]
Biaggi 52% — Klein 48% [Andrew Saavedra]
— > Biaggi 53% — Klein 44.48% <—
Biaggi 54% — Klein 46% [Jack Marth]
Biaggi 56% — Klein 44% [Nick Rizzo]
6) State Senator Tony Avella / John Liu
Avella 55% — Liu 45% [Victor Mimoni]
Avella 55% — Liu 45% [Frank Morano]
Avella 54% — Liu 46% [Mark Green]
Avella 51% — Liu 49% [Martin Samoylov]
Liu 59% — Avella 39% [Aron Canter]
Liu 57% — Avella 43% [Jeanne Zaino]
Liu 56% — Avella 44% [Jack Marth]
Liu 55% — Avella 45% [Andrew Saavedra]
Liu 55% — Avella 45% [Bilal Haider]
Liu 54% — Avella 46% [Nick Rizzo]
Liu 52% — Avella 48% [Tom Allon]
—> Liu 50.68% — Avella 45.31% <—
7) State Senator Marisol Alcantara / Robert Jackson
Alcantara 52% — Jackson; 48% [Andrew Saavedra]
Alcantara 51% — Jackson 49% [Martin Samoylov]
Jackson 51% — Alcantara 49% [Jeanne Zaino]
—> Jackson 52.88% – Alcantara 36.39% <—
Jackson 53% — Alcantara 47% [Mark Green]
Jackson 55% — Alcantara 45% [Frank Morano]
Jackson 55% — Alcantara 45% [Mazin Sidahmed]
Jackson 57% — Alacantara 43% [Tom Allon]
Jackson 60% — Alcantara 40% [Bilal Haider]
Jackson 61% — Alcantara 39% [Jack Marth]
Jackson 62% — Alcantara 31% [Nick Rizzo]
Jackson 65% — Alcantara 25% [Aron Canter]
8) State Senator Jose Peralta / Jessica Ramos
Peralta 70% — Ramos 30% [Martin Samoylov]
Peralta 55% — Ramo 40% [Aron Canter]
Peralta 55% — Ramos 45% [Tom Allon]
Peralta 55% — Ramos 45% [Mark Green]
Peralta 55% — Ramos 45% [Victor Mimoni]
—> Ramos 50.73% — Peralta 41.74% <—
Ramos 52% — Peralta 48% [Bilal Haider]
Ramos 52% — Peralta 48% [Jack Marth]
Ramos 58% — Peralta 42% [Andrew Saavedra]
Ramos 58% — Peralta 42% [Jeanne Zaino]
Ramos 61% — Peralta 39% [Nick Rizzo]
9) State Senator Jesse Hamilton /Zellnor Myrie
Hamilton 65% — Myrie 35% [Martin Samoylov]
Hamilton 56% — Myrie 44% [Mark Green]
Hamilton 56% — Myrie 44% [Frank Morano]
Hamilton 42% — Myrie 58% [Jeanne Zaino]
—>Myrie 51.30% — Hamilton 43.44% <—
Myrie 52% — Hamilton 48% [Tom Allon]
Myrie 53% — Hamilton 47% [Bilal Haider]
Myrie 57% — Hamilton 43% [Andrew Saavedra]
Myrie 58% — Hamilton 42% [Jack Marth]
Myrie 66% — Hamilton 34 [Nick Rizzo]
10) WILD CARD PREDICTIONS
Azi to Mike Allen of Axios: “I’ll put you down in the ‘Everyone’s a winner’ category. :)”
Mike Allen’s response: “👊‼️”
“Large millennial turnout leads to Teachout win, close IDC elections and Nixon over performing the polls which did not count millennial votes.” [Tom Allon]
“I NEVER predict. I tend to be apotropaic.” [Stuart Appelbaum, president of RWDSU]
“Ross Barkan wins in south bk” [Aron Canter]
“[State Senator Simcha] Felder and [State Senator Martin] Dillan surviving.” [Sean Finnerty]
“Salazar wins. [Ross] Barkan wins. [Bilal Haider]
“I don’t know but [the governor’s race] closer to a 4 point race than a 40 point race” [Stu Loeser, communication consultant and former press secretary for Mayor Bloomberg]
“Nancy Sliwa wins Reform Party primary for AG with upwards of 50% of the vote.” [Frank Morano]
“[Julia] Salazar beats [State Senator Martin] Dilan and [State Senator Diane] Savino beats [Jasmine] Robinson” [Nick Rizzo]
Salazar 53% — Dilan 47% [Andrew Saavedra]
“Even if he wins the Governor is not going to be happy tomorrow night!” [Jeanne Zaino]
— #30 —
